Edinburgh council leaders have grown fond of patting themselves on the back for their efforts to tackle the housing crisis and while it is true there are grand plans for Granton, demand for all types of homes still far outstrips supply.
Targets were set in which the desire for a soundbite took priority over reality, and when Edinburgh’s SNP-Labour administration promised to build 20,000 new affordable homes by 2027 it was clear from the outset they would fail. Barely half that will be achieved.
The global cost-of-living crisis has taken some heat from property markets and Edinburgh house prices between April and June fell 0.9 per cent year-on-year, but according to the ESPC the average price is still £299,164, around £100,000 above the Scottish average.
But a cooling property market has another downside than just lost value, because most affordable homes are built by the private sector through conditions attached to commercial developments. Therefore, a depressed open market means fewer new affordable homes, and the association for senior council officials has just reported that 240,000 Scots are waiting for social housing. Only 26,000 a year will succeed.
The good news is inflation might be coming under control, although the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) is still sitting at 7.9 per cent up across the year to June, and if pressure eases on interest rates, property markets will pick up.
It’s been clear for years that West Edinburgh will bear the brunt of house building, and the current construction at West Craigs and Cammo is only a taste of massive expansion towards Broxburn, and the City Council is now running three public consultations on how this can be achieved.
I recently visited the Taylor Wimpey site at West Craigs where 250 new homes are being built, 47 of which will be for social rent and 13 sold at a 20 per cent discount through the Council’s Golden Share scheme.
It’s nowhere near enough ─ currently over 200 bids are received for each three-bedroom social rent home in East Craigs ─ and the problem is both lack of land and the painfully slow planning process. It took years for West Craigs to go through and work only started in December 2020.
Faster planning means faster delivery of homes for all, but although the thousands of new homes envisaged for West Edinburgh are badly needed, the council hasn’t worked out how new residents will get about, hoping they will all find jobs, schools and every other amenity within a 20-minute active travel radius, which, like its housing targets, is very wishful thinking.
With the tram extension to Newbridge ruled out and no effort being made to maximise Edinburgh Gateway railway station capacity, the only alternative to cars is more buses. Maybe more people will mean more buses, but McGills has just axed West Lothian routes, and its Ratho services are unreliable.
As the SNP Scottish Government is incapable of improving roads ─ even when they are killers like the A9 or bottlenecks like the Sheriffhall roundabout ─ Edinburgh Council’s only answer is more bus lanes, which means only one lane for cars on the A8 and A90.
We need the houses, but with thousands more to be built in Winchburgh, without better public transport investment West Edinburgh will grind to a halt.
