Even when events look like they are going only one way, it’s pointless to try to predict when to expect the next big moment in Scottish politics because so often what’s widely anticipated doesn’t quite materialise.
But like Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation and then the arrest and subsequent charging of her husband and ex-SNP chief executive Peter Murrell in relation to embezzlement allegations, they can take you completely by surprise.
Humza Yousaf’s resignation was a bit of both. Everyone knew his race was run, but going into the weekend few expected it to be over first thing on Monday.
The only option is to get on with what’s planned or nothing would get done. So amid the growing speculation about soon-to-be-ex-First Minister Humza Yousaf’s future, I felt very strange bringing my Hungarian Vizsla Alfie into the Scottish Parliament for the annual Dog of the Year competition. No high politics for me!
These events look trivial, but they do have a function in breaking down barriers between rivals and helping make Holyrood that little bit less tribal than might otherwise be the case. Nevertheless, there was an inevitable sense of unreality parading our pets while across town Humza Yousaf was confirming he’d made an utter dog’s breakfast of running the government.
Inside parliament, we were all seemingly walk-on extras as the main concourse turned into one huge media scrum and journalists and camera crews clamoured for the views of anyone who might have an inkling about the SNP’s future. The answer is one word. Grim.
Holyrood has not felt dysfunctional, but neither has it felt productive as the SNP psycho-drama sucked away the oxygen of publicity and some issues which might otherwise have had wider awareness went under the radar.
In my education committee we heard expert views about the Scottish Languages Bill which aims to gives Gaelic and Scots official status. Hardly top of most people’s priorities, but it was an SNP manifesto commitment, so it deserves close scrutiny. What we heard was consensus among professors of Gaelic that it was “tokenistic” and would do nothing for vernacular Gaelic-speaking communities, but it went largely unreported, in Central Scotland at least.
Similarly, awareness of what was said at the Equalities, Human Rights and Justice Committee discussion on suicide prevention, an important subject in anyone’s book, will remain low.
Admittedly there was extensive coverage of the Abortion Services (Safe Access Zones) Bill, which will create buffer areas to prevent protests within 200m of abortion clinics, and which I supported, but I didn’t see it reported that Humza Yousaf missed the vote. And this was someone who said how passionately he believed women in this situation needed protection.
Maybe things will be clearer by the time you read this, but despite the end of the Bute House Agreement and the leadership’s collapse, it looks like the Nicola Sturgeon loyalists who gave us Hapless Humza are conspiring to ensure a return to the same Green-dominated programme, just without a bit of paper to make it official.
That a government badly in need of a reset is turning to John Swinney, someone who didn’t cut the mustard as opposition leader 20 years ago, and failed as education secretary, shows the SNP has not just run out of road but drivers as well. And that’s no surprise.
